12 Charts of 2012

December 24th, 2012

Thought this was interesting. Just a recap of the US economy in 2012. Despite what you’ll hear on the news, things are, if anything, getting worse. And economic indicators suggest that we are approaching the point that we were at in 2007 just before the economy snapped and went into recession.

Great Piece on Education – More to Come

October 31st, 2011

Here’s a great piece on modern university education. I’ve seen so many like this lately. I’d like to edit this post in the future to build a collection of compelling articles opposed to the status quo in college education. I suspect that education is truly the next great bubble to burst. As legendary investor Jim Rogers has said, he’d be shorting higher education if he knew of a way to do so.




One note to those who have stumbled across the site thus far – I’ve been doing a poor job of regularly posting up to now. I promise I’ll try to do a better job of it going forward.

The Minimum Wage and Unemployment

September 8th, 2011

For those not yet paying attention to the presidential race yet, CNN hosted a debate in the Reagan Library last night…

I’m not going to discuss candidate performance too much. Perry did horribly, Huntsman tried to matter, what few questions Ron Paul got required much more nuanced responses than can be fit into a sound byte, and Romney won by default.

But, any political fanatic knows that the real action happens on twitter, reddit, facebook, youtube, and candidate forums in the 24 hours after the show. This is as much due to the excitement and debate as it is to the incredibly stupid bastards trolling these sites. I’d like to address two arguments that people try to advance in online debates. One is an economic argument, and the other an attempt to deflect incoming criticism by citing the constitution.

The Economic One
I don’t recall how, but the minimum wage came up as a topic last night and Ron Paul spoke briefly saying that he’d abolish it on the federal level. Not long after the debate, i wandered across tweets and forum posts from geniuses saying something something to the effect of “I can’t believe the Ron Paul would repeal the minimum wage! He hates poor people! Employers would pay all employees $2 an hour! Libertarians all believe in social darwinism! It would be unbridled capitalism, a free-for-all!”

Its a compelling argument. If not for minimum wage laws, what is to stop corporations from paying all the poor $2 an hour and “enslaving” them? Why wouldn’t corporations and rich executives rule the country with a series of tyrannical monopolies? Thank god we have laws like the minimum wage for saving us from serfdom.

Shame that its completely baseless. Even if you accept the theory that corporations could do this, it is not borne out by reality.

For starters, only 6.0% of the population of paid-hourly workers is being paid at minimum wage or less. So if anyone is concerned about companies paying their workers less than minimum wage, they’re worried about a mere 6.0% of the paid-hourly working population – about 4.4 million people. This number WAS 2.2% in 2006, but it’s gone up due to the global recession/depression. Of this group, about 60% work in the service sector, mostly the food preparation and service-related fields, a large portion of which involve tipping, which is not tracked by the BLS.

Further, many are part-time workers, so as a portion of total man-hours, this means that an even smaller portion of hourly wages are at the minimum wage floor.

Finally, according to the BLS, about 50% of minimum wage earners are under the age of 25. It doesn’t take a sociology professor to understand that most under-25 workers are not supporting a family, many (if not most) are living at home, and an enormous amount are probably attending high school or college and just tying to make a couple extra bucks on the side. I did the same thing as a student at college. I worked for the IT department and got paid something like $7.40 an hour – the federal minimum wage is currently $7.25. It was awesome for beer money, but I certainly wasn’t trying to support a family on the side. There are many in the same situation.

Put this all together, and you see that a very small portion of workers are likely actually making the minimum wage. Its probably so small that it’s difficult to quantify how many people are truly being paid that 7.25.

What you should now be asking yourself is – “If the minimum wage were keeping many wages up, rather than causing employers to simply fire them (causing unemployment), shouldn’t we expect to see a large portion of workers pushed up against that lower-bound, minimum wage rate of $7.25?” Now you’re asking the right question. If employers who would otherwise be paying, say, $5.00 an hour were being forced by the minimum wage to raise their workers’ pay, we should see a lot more workers right up against that minimum wage rate.

Why don’t we? Because the minimum wage rate causes employers to lay off employees rather than raise their wages. Employers simply cannot afford to pay their workers more than their productive value. If a worker can only produce $7.00 of value per hour, an employer is not going to pay him/her $7.25, especially since the real costs to that employer may be higher due to compliance requirements and regulation. In reality, the employee probably needs to do quite a bit better than $7.25 per hour to make their employment worthwhile. This is pure economics 101. This is why the 16-25 age group, which has the highest unemployment rate, also comprises 50% of minimum wage earners, and has the lowest average wage rate. It is no coincidence that the age group with the largest portion of workers likely to be worth below the minimum wage rate is also the age group with the highest unemployment.

The consequences? Young workers, who are often unreliable and inexperienced, could be gaining valuable experience, albeit at a low wage. This would make them more productive and therefore more valuable, translating into higher wages later in their life and a little extra cash and independence in the meantime. Instead they’re being denied experience, semi-independence, and a few bucks on the side.

Meanwhile, the majority of those below the poverty line, who are largely making above minimum wage anyway, aren’t helped at all.

Keep in mind that nobody is, or would be, forcing the poor and young into these jobs – they have the power to turn down an offer and look for a better one. If you asked an unemployed worker whether or not they’d at least like the option of choosing between a $6.50/hour position and unemployment, rather than having unemployment de facto imposed on them by minimum wage laws, I think they’d prefer to have the option.

Source: http://www.bls.gov/cps/minwage2010.htm

Note: I’ve already spent too long on this topic, so I’ll save the criticism-deflection-constitution-referencing-fail for tomorrow. Preview: Anyone who cites the first amendment in an attempt to shield themselves from criticism fundamentally misunderstands the constitution and simultaneously engages in self-contradiction


…and unfortunately probably votes.

MSM Showing it’s Bias vs. RP

August 15th, 2011

Is a US Economic Collapse Imminent?

June 1st, 2011

The Dow tumbled today after a double dose of bearish news. Employment numbers increased far more slowly than expected and housing prices continued their crash. Consumer confidence is down significantly and the Dow’s short term bearish trend is starting to look like a long term trend. Is this the beginning of another correction, so soon after the previous? Asian markets are down overnight and QE3 is about to end. The market is absolutely ripe for a collapse. Not just a next-two-years collapse either; it may only be a couple months away or less. What is sure is that stocks have outpaced the actual “recovery” and that the only question left is ‘when will the equities bubble burst?’ Perhaps all the rise in stocks we’ve seen over the past couple years has been an across-the-board bubble that Keynesian economists and money managers have been misinterpreting as a rebound. Time to short the Dow? I think so.

I leave you with this

Ron Paul on the Military

May 25th, 2011


Can you imagine your run-of-the-mill conservative saying this? Dr. Paul has been in the political trenches for years. He’s not some doofus who had a midlife ‘conversion’ and decided he believed in free markets. The guy believes firmly in liberty at all costs. How’s that for conservative?

It’d be nice if the other so-called conservatives would stick their neck out for their principles. I suppose when your principles are only to get elected to another term, you never have to stick your neck out.

I can’t wait to see this guy debate Romney. Try ignoring RP in this election cycle, when he’s polling continuously in the top three. I wonder if the GOP isn’t scrambling for a counter to him. Herman Cain talks like Ron, but won’t be taken seriously for very long. The GOP is too cunning not to have a gameplan there.

Powerful Appeal Against War

May 23rd, 2011

Note To New Visitors…

April 28th, 2011

I apologize if this blog has not seen much of any activity since I brought it up. My day job has recently been taking up an enormous amount of my time. However I expect the time drain to lessen significantly after mid-May, when I can hopefully begin posting daily.

Since creating the blog, I’ve already gotten one post from a self-described liberal explaining to me why Obama is the best American president to ever have existed. I wonder if he also considers Bush II a fantastic president? Need I explain the abundant similarities between Obama and Bush?

Never mind that I have yet to blog anything negative about Obama. Good of this one liberal to realize that Austrian economics and modern liberalism inherently in opposition to one another.

Maybe I should do my first blog post on why Obama and Bush II are the same person. Or perhaps I can broaden my scope and explain why neo-conservatism and liberalism are one and the same?

Please bear with me for another few weeks =)

Holy Awesome

April 28th, 2011

Check out episode two of the EconStories video series, produced by several guys from George Mason.

First Post

April 10th, 2011

Testing! Is this thing working?